Climate experts explain how El Nino and climate change are intricately linked, with El Nino delaying monsoon onset and climate change intensifying rainfall. This new reality is altering the Indian monsoon's behaviour, leading to short-duration, high-intensity rain spells, especially in western and northwestern regions.
Monsoon rains have unleashed widespread destruction across India, claiming seven lives in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka due to landslides and floods, while heavy downpours have disrupted normal life and triggered red alerts in Maharashtra and other regions.
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
Large parts of India are experiencing a severe heatwave, with temperatures soaring to dangerous levels. Authorities have issued alerts and health advisories as the heatwave intensifies across multiple states.
More than 150 express/passenger trains running through South Eastern Railway jurisdiction have been cancelled in view of the severe cyclonic storm, an SER official said.
The weather system remained practically stationary during the last six hours and weakened to a depression, and is likely to turn into a well-marked low pressure area during the next 12 hours, it said in a bulletin.
Cyclone Shakhti, the first cyclonic storm of the post-monsoon season in the Arabian Sea, has intensified.
The cyclonic storm is likely to make landfall between Bhitarkanika National Park and Dhamra Port in Odisha early Friday with wind speeds of up to 120 kilometres per hour (kmph), it said.
Cyclone Ditwah is moving towards the Tamil Nadu coast, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall. The state government is reviewing preparedness measures, and a red alert has been issued for southern and delta districts.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for most parts of India during the post-monsoon season (October to December), except for some areas in the northwest. The southwest monsoon season ended with the country recording eight per cent above normal rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal rainfall for India in September, following a monsoon season marked by heavy downpours and related disasters in various regions. The forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall for most areas, with some exceptions in the northeast, east, extreme south peninsular India, and parts of northwest India.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
Cyclone Ditwah exits Sri Lanka after causing widespread destruction and over 120 deaths, heading towards the Indian coast. Heavy rains and high winds are expected to continue.
The system lay centered at 5.30 am over Southeast Bay of Bengal, about 450 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands), 380 km west of Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 970 km southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1030 km south-southeast of Puri (Odisha).
The system moved north-northeastwards at 20 kmph in the last six hours and is over west-central Bay of Bengal, 90 km from Gopalpur, 120 km from Puri and 210 km from Paradip, the weather office said in its 11.30 am bulletin.
The record monsoon rains across India during the June to September months was 937.2 millimetres, the 5th-highest since 2001 and 38th-highest since 1901.
Fifteen persons were killed and over 300 injured in a severe cyclonic storm that lashed West Bengal's south 24 Parganas and east Midnapore districts in the early hours on Wednesday.
The southwest monsoon arrived in Maharashtra on Sunday, making it the earliest onset of the annual rainfall season over the state in 35 years, according to the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon is expected to advance to Mumbai and some other parts over the next three days. The monsoon advanced into some more parts of the Arabian Sea, Karnataka, entire Goa, parts of Maharashtra, north Bay of Bengal, and parts of Mizoram, parts of Manipur and Nagaland on Sunday. The northern limit of monsoon passes through Devgad, Belagavi, Haveri, Mandya, Dharmapuri, Chennai, Aizawl and Kohima. Conditions are favorable for further advance into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, more parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai, Karnataka including Bengaluru, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, more parts of west-central and North Bay of Bengal and some more parts of North Eastern states during next three days. The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009.
The Met Department has predicted light to moderate rainfall across parts of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha with the probability of the severe cyclonic storm 'Asani' recurving.
Depression over Bay of Bengal intensifies
The deep depression over central Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Sunday evening and after changing course in a northeastward direction from northwest.
The Odisha government has asked all the district collectors to remain prepared for any eventuality, and directed the administration to evacuate people from low-lying areas in the event of heavy rain.
'It is very likely to move nearly northwards for next few hour and recurve slowly north-northeastwards along Narsapur, Yanam, Kakinada, Tuni and Visakhapatnam coasts during noon to evening on Wednesday and emerge into west central Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh coasts by night,' the India Meteorological Department said in its national bulletin.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Local people had hoped that all the floodwater would be cleared by Friday but the opposite occurred.
The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers. "Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.
The southern districts of West Bengal, including Kolkata, woke up to light rain and an overcast sky on Monday as cyclone 'Sitrang' moved towards north Bay of Bengal, raising the likelihood of a downpour during the day and threatening to dampen Diwali festivities.
The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots gusting to 65 knots around system centre. Sea condition is rough to very rough, it stated.
As Cyclone Dana barrels toward the coasts of Odisha, threatening to impact nearly half of the state's population, the government is racing against time to execute a massive evacuation plan aimed at relocating about 10 lakh people in several coastal districts to safety. In West Bengal, the cyclone is set to bring heavy rainfall in several southern West Bengal districts, including Kolkata, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
India recorded around 16 per cent more rainfall than normal in August, with rainfall over Northwest India recorded at 253.9 mm, the second highest in August since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
Among the fatalities recorded on Friday, the maximum 17 were from Uttar Pradesh, 14 from Bihar, five from Odisha and four from Jharkhand, where officials said more than 1,300 people are hospitalised with heatstroke conditions.
The sea conditions near the Odisha coast will become rough on May 9 and rougher on May 10.
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph was likely to prevail along and off the Orissa coast, the sources said.
A 22-year-old youth and a person with disability died, while at least 11 were injured, in separate rain-related incidents in the national capital on Wednesday evening. The incidents occurred amid sudden changes in weather in Delhi, as a rainy storm marked by hail wrecked havoc across the city, throwing traffic out of gear as far as Delhi-Noida, Delhi-Ghaziabad, and Delhi-Gurugram roads and uprooting several trees.
'There will not be very heavy rain.' 'Moderate showers will be there and winds will be, say, somewhere between 20 and 40 km/hr, gusting to 35 km/hr.'
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and his Telangana counterpart Revanth Reddy visited some inundated areas in their respective territories.
Danger signal number five, hoisted at Gopalpur port, was replaced by signal number seven while signal number six had been hoisted at Puri and Paradip.
As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which closely monitors the cyclonic storm said, 'The SCS 'Mocha' intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm, lay centred at 05.30 hours IST of 12th May 2023 over central adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.2N and long 88.1E, about 520 km west-northwest of Port Blair.'
IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that 'Yaas' is likely to intensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by Tuesday evening and Chandbali is likely to witness the maximum damage caused by it.
West Bengal and Odisha have evacuated lakhs of people from vulnerable areas to safety as severe cyclonic storm 'Yaas' is nearing the coast and is expected to make landfall near Dhamra Port in Bhadrak district early on Wednesday morning.
